Virginia Goes to the Democrats
OK, lets do the numbers. I will write this so that you can follow along. First go to Virginia's official website http://www.virginia.gov/cmsportal2/, then click on "Real-Time Election Results". This will take you to http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/
The default statistics displayed are the U.S. Senate race, which lists the following facts:
Total registered voters: 4,555,672
Total registered voters that got off their ass and voted: 2,361,441
Votes for the Democratic challenger: 1,170,686
Votes for the Republican incumbent : 1,162,327
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This means that J H Webb Jr has 8,359 more votes than G F Allen
Now the total Precincts Reporting is: 2437 of 2443 (99.75%)
This means that .25% is left to be tallied, but with 1% of the voters who showed up is 23,614. Now a quarter of that 1% is 5,903 and a half voters are left to be counted.
As you can see the Republican needs more votes than are left to be counted, so I call Virginia for the Democrats.
(I removed this paragraph which was me being whiney about the recount, which I didnt want, but was unaware that it is legally required if the candidates are less than 1% apart)
Ok, math and early morning dont mix well, so if my math is off please just let me live in my little delusional happy world for a little longer :-)
Ok, I am off to look up the data from Montana..
-JP
The default statistics displayed are the U.S. Senate race, which lists the following facts:
Total registered voters: 4,555,672
Total registered voters that got off their ass and voted: 2,361,441
Votes for the Democratic challenger: 1,170,686
Votes for the Republican incumbent : 1,162,327
-------------
This means that J H Webb Jr has 8,359 more votes than G F Allen
Now the total Precincts Reporting is: 2437 of 2443 (99.75%)
This means that .25% is left to be tallied, but with 1% of the voters who showed up is 23,614. Now a quarter of that 1% is 5,903 and a half voters are left to be counted.
As you can see the Republican needs more votes than are left to be counted, so I call Virginia for the Democrats.
(I removed this paragraph which was me being whiney about the recount, which I didnt want, but was unaware that it is legally required if the candidates are less than 1% apart)
Ok, math and early morning dont mix well, so if my math is off please just let me live in my little delusional happy world for a little longer :-)
Ok, I am off to look up the data from Montana..
-JP
posted by DudeVanWinkle at 3:43 AM
2 Comments:
Your math doesn't seem to be off, but your methodology might be. The 99.75% reporting figure is not weighted. That is, it only means that 99.75% of polling places reported their final tallies in the count listed.
If those .25% of polling places are some of the larger ones in the state, it's conceivable that there are at least enough votes left to potentially turn the tide. However, it's unlikely that all of those votes go Republican, and the more Democratic votes there are in that last .25% of precincts the better the Democrat's chances are, obviously.
Also...
Virginia law does not require a recount if the vote if < 1% difference. The law actually says that candidates may not ask for a recount if the difference between winning and losing candidates is < 1%.
If the difference between the two candidates is < 1%, the losing candidate has the option to ask for a recount.
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